Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.249031 2.374830 2.511073 2.671000 2.855507 3.064209 3.321974
2025-09-21 2.106726 2.263841 2.441176 2.659681 2.927069 3.251697 3.690092
2025-09-28 1.989490 2.161203 2.360145 2.613244 2.935887 3.348597 3.947249
2025-10-05 1.947013 2.138559 2.366554 2.666714 3.067207 3.612080 4.478172
2025-10-12 1.923996 2.135174 2.393058 2.744158 3.235073 3.949529 5.217698
2025-10-19 1.867441 2.085644 2.356405 2.733079 3.276478 4.105847 5.709669
2025-10-26 1.824624 2.050124 2.334249 2.737921 3.338861 4.303178 6.361166
2025-11-02 1.763731 1.988227 2.273474 2.683539 3.305079 4.332624 6.669063
2025-11-09 1.722082 1.948989 2.240254 2.665072 3.323661 4.455295 7.265873
2025-11-16 1.685792 1.914946 2.211910 2.651010 3.346745 4.589376 7.989135
2025-11-23 1.650947 1.881272 2.182206 2.632513 3.359957 4.706307 8.768166
2025-11-30 1.631537 1.867018 2.178109 2.651276 3.436655 4.967714 10.397718
2025-12-07 1.577653 1.806191 2.108478 2.569087 3.335957 4.839942 10.284264
2025-12-14 1.550559 1.780329 2.086576 2.558602 3.359973 4.994573 11.836298
2025-12-21 1.514939 1.741850 2.045403 2.515886 3.322349 5.000349 12.626436
2025-12-28 1.510077 1.744651 2.062502 2.564914 3.456431 5.455565 18.903330
2026-01-04 1.511645 1.756064 2.092163 2.635778 3.641821 6.131748 55.088856
2026-01-11 1.490007 1.734684 2.073113 2.625609 3.666122 6.357004 NaN
2026-01-18 1.473572 1.720004 2.063266 2.630009 3.720661 6.706510 NaN
2026-01-25 1.443294 1.685222 2.022512 2.580208 3.656478 6.625623 NaN
2026-02-01 1.423150 1.664194 2.001628 2.563264 3.661225 6.800779 NaN
2026-02-08 1.404998 1.645519 1.983651 2.550354 3.673460 7.013737 NaN
2026-02-15 1.386585 1.626048 1.963881 2.533368 3.675137 7.190216 NaN